This week: Asian indexes on Middle East, data watch

Markets are starting the week rather cautiously.

It appears that last Friday’s declines for global stocks, including for many Asian indices, had somewhat pre-empted Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel this past Saturday, which escalated the ongoing Middle East conflict.

It remains a fluid situation.

Markets are now primed to watch for any signs whether Israel will launch a military response directly against Iran.

Still, Asian stock indices could see more sizeable moves in the days ahead, as traders monitor the Middle East conflict, and also key Asian data and events.
 

Asian indices could be dragged even lower should the risk-off mood escalate, coupled with signs of more weakness for major Asian economies.

Events Watchlist:
 

• Tuesday, April 16: CN50 index – China key economic data releases.

CN50’s sluggish year-to-date performance correlates with China’s economic challenges.

However, better-than-expected GDP, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, and property investment out of the world’s second-largest economy could help restore CN50 closer to the 12,000 level and its 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

• Wednesday, April 17: SG20 index – Singapore March exports

Singapore is not just a financial hub in Asia, but also a trading powerhouse.

However, its non-oil exports are forecasted to have fallen by 6.7% year-on-year in March – which would make it 11 monthly declines out of the past 12.

Lower-than-expected trade figures may drag the SG20 index further below the 290 round number.

• Thursday, April 18: TWN index – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) earnings

TSMC, Asia’s largest company and the world’s most valuable chipmaker, accounts for almost 20% of the TWN stock index. 

After this Thursday’s full earnings release, markets predict TSMC’s stocks could move by another 7%, either up or down.

More positive surprises by TSMC may restore the TWN index closer to its record high, provided market fears for a further escalation in the ongoing Middle East conflict do meaningfully subside.

Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:

Monday, April 15

• CNH: PBoC rate decision
   
• EUR: Eurozone February industrial production
   
• USD index: US March retail sales; speeches by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
   
• US30 index: Goldman Sachs earnings

Tuesday, April 16

• CN50 index: China 1Q GDP; March industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, property investment
   
• EU50 index: Eurozone April ZEW survey; February trade balance
   
• GBP: UK February unemployment
   
• RUS2000 index: US March industrial production
   
• CAD: Canada March CPI
   
• US500 index: Morgan Stanley, Bank of America earnings

Wednesday, April 17

• NZD: New Zealand 1Q CPI
   
• JP225 index: Japan March trade balance
   
• SG20 index: Singapore March exports
   
• NETH25 index: Eurozone March CPI (final)
   
• UK100 index: UK March CPI; speech by BOE Governor Andrew Bailey
   
• US400 index: Fed Beige Book; speeches by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman

Thursday, April 18

• AUD: Australia March unemployment; 1Q business confidence
   
• TWN index: TSMC earnings
   
• USD: US weekly initial jobless claims; speeches by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, New York Fed President John Williams, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

Friday, April 19

• JPY: Japan March national CPI
   
• GER40 index: Germany March PPI
   
• GBP: UK March retail sales
   
• USD: Speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee