EURUSD volatility expected amid key macro releases

• EURUSD briefly dipped below yesterdays close – 1.07155
   
• Powell’s speech may impact the EURUSD pair
   
• EU inflation and US Job openings data are expected today
   
• EURUSD below major SMAs, bearish trend

The EURUSD briefly traded below yesterday's opening level of 1.07155 as markets prepare for important macroeconomic releases on both sides of the Atlantic.
 

The world's major currency pair may experience higher levels of volatility following the release of

• EU Inflation Rate: 2.5% YoY - Expected; 2.6% YoY - Previous

Higher-than-expected inflation may lead to EURUSD appreciation

• US JOLT job openings: 7.90M - expected; 8.06M - previous

Higher-than-expected JOLT's reading may contribute to the Fed's decision to keep interest rates higher for longer and as a result strengthen the USD.

The markets are also looking forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech as it may provide some clues about the interest rate outlook. 

Powell's hawkish stance could tip the balance in favor of the greenback. 

At the time of writing, the markets are confident (70.8% probability) that the rate cut will be implemented in September 2024 (according to the CME FedWatch tool).

The EURUSD currency pair also continues to be affected by changes in the European political landscape.

From a technical perspective...

The EURUSD is trading below all major SMAs (21-, 50-, and 100-period SMAs), indicating a bearish trend in the short, medium, and long term.

The RSI is floating at 44 (neutral territory) and is neither overbought (>70) nor oversold (<30), suggesting no imminent reversal.

The trend may remain bearish. Potential support may be forming near the current level, and a break above the 21-period SMA could signal a short-term momentum shift.